NHC Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 17:10:54 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121710
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Simon, centered about 60 miles off the coast of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is gradually
becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for further development. A tropical depression is
expected to form well south of southern Mexico in the next two days
while the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen

Summary for Hurricane Simon (EP5/EP202026)

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 20:51:57 GMT

...SIMON MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 100 MPH WINDS... ...FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Oct 12 the center of Simon was located near 20.2, -106.8 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Simon Public Advisory Number 22

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 20:51:57 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Oct 12 2026 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 122051 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 PM MST Mon Oct 12 2026 ...SIMON MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 100 MPH WINDS... ...FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 106.8W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm warning from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should continue to monitor as changes to watches and warnings are possible later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 106.8 West. Simon is moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), but is forecast to resume a slow northwestward motion by tonight which should then continue into early Tuesday. A gradual turn toward the northeast is forecast thereafter. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to be near Las Islas Marias tonight into Tuesday, and then approaching the west-central Mexico coastline on Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next day or so, but Simon could re-intensify some by Wednesday and is forecasted to remain a hurricane through midweek. Rapid weakening is likely after Simon moves inland late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely to occur in the Hurricane Warning area of Las Islas Marias beginning tonight into Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across coastal west-central Mexico with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over the state of Sinaloa by Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is possible along the immediate coast near Las Islas Marias. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin]]>

Hurricane Simon Forecast Advisory Number 22

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 20:50:55 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 12 2026 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 122050 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026 2100 UTC MON OCT 12 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 106.8W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 106.8W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.9N 107.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 21.2N 107.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.5N 107.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 24.2N 106.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 106.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>

Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Number 22

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 20:53:26 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Oct 12 2026 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122053 TCDEP5 Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 PM MST Mon Oct 12 2026 This afternoon, Simon is a small hurricane that is dealing with some easterly vertical wind shear. The inner-core continues to produce a lot of lightning but mostly in the eastern semicircle. The most recent microwave image was a 1718 UTC AWS pass that also showed this core asymmetry with the eyewall open on the northwest side on the 180 GHz channel. While the latest 18 UTC subjective Dvorak estimate remains at CI 5.5/102-kt, the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS continue to gradually decrease. Thus, the initial intensity is being reduced to a somewhat uncertain 85 kt this advisory, which also matches the D-MINT mean estimate from the AWS microwave pass above. A helpful 1712 UTC Metop-C scatterometer pass was useful to help adjust Simon's radii and also to indicate its wind field has become quite small, with 34-kt winds only extending out about 40 n mi. Simon's track has thrown us a few curve balls over the past 24-36 h, and this afternoon is no exception as the hurricane made a brief westward jog, with the longer-term motion estimated at 290/3 kt. The track forecast remains problematic. Part of the slow motion Simon is exhibiting today is related to competing steering synoptic features, primarily a mid-level ridge centered near the Texas Coast versus another mid-level ridge located southwest of the hurricane. The influence of the northeastern ridge has been a little stronger, but steering diagnostics suggest that Simon may be soon reaching a bifurcation or COL point in the flow. This feature indicates the area where the net steering flow collapses and helps explain why both the deterministic and ensemble track guidance spread increases quite dramatically in 24 to 48 h. For example, the HAFS-A/B models, which earlier this morning were showing a faster northeastward turn back into Mexico, now show Simon stalling and executing a slow cyclonic loop in the waters between mainland Mexico and the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. The European ensemble spread suggests that these individual solutions are likely just different flavors of the overall distribution, which is spread out in a southwest to northeast fashion. While the overall track guidance continues to have large spread, there has been a northward and faster shift this cycle. This shift is a bit odd given the current storm motion, so the NHC track forecast is initially on the left side of the guidance over the first 12-24 h, but falls back closer to the middle of the guidance envelope, and attempts to blend the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), Google Deepmind ensemble mean (GDMI), and their latest Weather Next model (WN3I). Ultimately the latest track forecast converges close to the prior one near landfall in Mexico in 72-96 h, but this remains a low confidence track forecast. The intensity forecast for Simon is also challenging. The current mid-level easterly shear affecting Simon's inner core structure has not been well anticipated by the model guidance. Small tropical cyclones like Simon are often more sensitive to negative environmental factors, and even 15-20 kt of easterly shear could be enough to disrupt the core structure, especially with nearby environmental dry air. The factors may result in additional weakening in the short-term. However, EC-SHIPS guidance shows the shear lowering below 5 kt in 24-48 h. Assuming Simon is able to maintain an inner core structure and take advantage of the more favorable conditions, restrengthening is still forecast, especially as the hurricane is expected to track over the warmest sea-surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific basin (31-32 C). The intensity guidance shows more short-term weakening compared to the previous cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast is lower early on, but still shows restrengthening as Simon encounters those more favorable conditions, and ends up on the high end of the intensity guidance in 60-72 h. Small storms like Simon can also be prone to rapid changes in intensity, which continues to make this intensity forecast also more uncertain than usual. Rapid weakening is still anticipated when Simon eventually makes landfall in the latter part of this week between 72-96 h. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are likely on Las Islas Marias over the next day or so, where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. 2. Simon is expected to approach the coast of western Mexico later this week, where hurricane conditions are possible. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Cabo Corrientes to Bahia Tempehuaya. 3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of west-central Mexico over the next few days. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 4. Large swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 20.2N 106.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 20.5N 107.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 20.9N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 21.2N 107.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 21.5N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 22.2N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 23.0N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 24.2N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin]]>

Hurricane Simon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 20:51:56 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 12 2026 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 122051 PWSEP5 HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026 2100 UTC MON OCT 12 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 6( 8) 3(11) 6(17) 10(27) 3(30) X(30) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 12(54) X(54) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21) X(21) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>

Hurricane Simon Graphics

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 21:22:48 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Oct 2026 21:22:48 GMT